Tuesday, August 5, 2014

My Talk at the JSM

Tomorrow morning (Wednesday 6 August) I'll be presenting at the Joint Statistical Meetings in Boston.

The title for my talk is "Modelling Asymmetries in the Market for Gasoline in Western Canada", and it's based on some research that I have underway on this topic. 

The question that's addressed in this work is: "Are the upward and downward movements in retail gasoline prices, that follow increases and decreases in crude oil prices, symmetric?" There's a common perception that the "flow-through" from oil prices to gasoline prices is faster when prices are rising than when they are falling. I use ARDL models with an explicit allowance for possible asymmetry to test this hypothesis.

I'll have more to say on this when the work is completed, but in the meantime you can see some partial results by downloading the slides for my talk here.

© 2014, David E. Giles

The 7 Pillars of Statistical Wisdom

Yesterday, Stephen Stigler presented the (ASA) President's Invited Address to an overflow, and appreciative, audience at the 2014 Joint Statistical Meetings in Boston. The title of his talk was, "The Seven Pillars of Statistical Wisdom".

I'd been looking forward to this presentation by our foremost authority on the history of statistics, and it surpassed my (high) expectations.

The address will be published in JASA at some future date, and I urge you to read it when it appears. In the meantime, here are the "seven pillars" - the supporting pillars of statistical science - with some brief comments: